The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by March is 8.1%.

According to Jinse Finance, CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 50.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 41.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 8.1%. The next two FOMC meeting dates are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, respectively.